Monetary Policy Summary, May 2022

The MPC voted by a majority of 6-3 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 1%.

Commenting on the increase FIS CEO Iain McIlwee stated:

“It is clear that the bank needs to act as inflation is well above the 2% threshold and if you look behind the numbers, those 3 members that were not in the majority actually favoured a higher increase, that is to push the Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.25%.  Clearly this is a difficult balancing act, but whilst rates rising is not typically good news for construction, inflation is the bigger challenge and in terms of volumes we should not be too concerned as this increase was anticipated an is already factored in to much of the investment out there.”

Global inflationary pressures have intensified sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has led to a material deterioration in the outlook for world and UK growth. These developments have exacerbated greatly the combination of adverse supply shocks that the United Kingdom and other countries continue to face. Concerns about further supply chain disruption have also risen, both due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to Covid-19 developments in China.

UK GDP is estimated to have risen by 0.9% in 2022 Q1, stronger than expected in the February Monetary Policy Report. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in the three months to February, and is likely to fall slightly further in coming months, consistent with a continuing tightening in the labour market and with a margin of excess demand at present. Surveys of business activity have generally remained strong. There have, however, been signs from indicators of retail spending and consumer confidence that the squeeze on real disposable incomes is starting to weigh on the household sector. The level of GDP is expected to be broadly unchanged in Q2.

Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 7.0% in March, around 1 percentage point higher than expected in the February Report. The strength of inflation relative to the 2% target mainly reflects previous large increases in global energy and tradable goods prices, the latter of which is due to the shift in global demand towards durable goods and to supply chain disruptions.

The Committee’s updated central projections for activity and inflation are set out in the accompanying May Monetary Policy Report. The projections are conditioned on a market-implied path for Bank Rate that rises to around 2½% by mid-2023, before falling to 2% at the end of the forecast period. Fiscal policy is assumed to evolve in line with announced Government policies. Wholesale energy prices are assumed to follow their respective futures curves for the first six months of the projections and remain constant beyond that, in contrast to futures curves, which are downward sloping over coming years. There are material risks around this assumption.

In the May Report central projection, CPI inflation is expected to rise further over the remainder of the year, to just over 9% in 2022 Q2 and averaging slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. The majority of that further increase reflects higher household energy prices following the large rise in the Ofgem price cap in April and projected additional large increase in October. The price cap mechanism means that it takes some time for increases in wholesale gas and electricity prices, and their respective futures curves, to be reflected in retail energy prices. Given the operation of the price cap, consumer price inflation is likely to peak later in the United Kingdom than in many other economies, and may therefore fall back later. The expected rise in CPI inflation also reflects higher food, core goods and services prices.

Underlying nominal earnings growth has risen by more than projected in the February Report and is expected to strengthen in coming months, given the further tightening of the labour market and some upward pressure from higher price inflation. Companies generally expect to increase their selling prices strongly in the near term, following the sharp rises in their costs, with many reporting confidence that they will be able to rebuild at least some of their margins.

Nonetheless, in the May Report central projection, UK GDP growth is expected to slow sharply over the first half of the forecast period. That predominantly reflects the significant adverse impact of the sharp rises in global energy and tradable goods prices on most UK households’ real incomes and many UK companies’ profit margins. Although the unemployment rate is likely to fall slightly further in the near term, it is expected to rise to 5½% in three years’ time given the sharp slowdown in demand growth. Excess supply builds to 2¼% by the end of the forecast period.

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In its latest quarterly forecast, the Construction Products Association (CPA) sees a dramatic slowing in growth, with uncertainty ahead as global issues start to affect the UK market.

In previous years, the predicted 2.8% growth in construction output anticipated by the CPA team would be cause for celebration. However, while a robust figure, this is a sharp revision down from the 4.3% growth forecast just three months ago.

Demand remains strong across the industry in Q2, and the current project pipeline suggests that this will support activity levels until at least 2022 Q3. The downward revision to the growth forecast stems from concern around a host of price pressures arising from both local and global issues.

Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, UK construction was already facing labour and product availability issues and the impact of reverse charge VAT and IR35. Rising energy costs were driving near-record price increases in construction products and the continued conflict is exacerbating this issue.

The impact of these pressures, and of more general rising costs, on demand will vary considerably by sector. Across the board the picture is one of positive market conditions in the short term with anticipation of tougher times ahead.

In private housing repair, maintenance and improvement, the stellar performer post the initial Covid-19 lockdowns, SMEs report that demand remains high, but this is the sector arguably most exposed to current price inflation, falls in consumer confidence and pressures on household incomes. Overall, output is expected to fall by 3% in 2022 and 4% next year from current all-time highs.

Private housing, the largest construction sector, remains strong, with housebuilders reporting resilient demand. Longer term, there must be questions over consumer confidence but output in this sector is forecast to rise by 1% in both 2022 and 2023. This contrasts with the 3% per year growth forecast three months ago.

The fastest growth is expected in the industrial sector, in which output is forecast to rise by 9.8% in 2022 and 9.3% in 2023, due to a strong pipeline of warehouse projects, resulting from a long-term shift towards online shopping.

Infrastructure, traditionally less affected by immediate economic conditions, remains positive. Large projects such as HS2, Thames Tideway and Hinkley Point C combined with the five-year spending plans in Page 2 of 3 regulated sectors such as rail, road and power generation point to a forecasted growth of 8.8% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023.

On the supply side, the main immediate impact of the war in Ukraine for construction products will be the knock-on from rising energy prices and commodity shortages. Soaring energy costs will have to be passed on and lead to sharp rises in the cost of energy-intensive products. This will affect both imported products such as aluminium and steel and locally sourced products such as bricks and cement.

Contractors are likely to feel the pressure first, particularly those working to fixed-price contracts. For future projects, contractors will be forced to re-price, add fluctuation costs and introduce risk-sharing arrangements to deal with the uncertainty over potential cost inflation.

Noble Francis, CPA Economics Director, offered this summary of the latest figures:

“The major challenge is creeping uncertainty. The immediate picture is one of resilient demand and healthy pipelines. Longer term, the current inflationary pressures, if sustained, will have an increasingly depressing impact, while the continuation, or potential escalation, of conflict in Europe presents an existential risk.

“Specialist sub-contractors are feeling the effects first, particularly those working to fixed-price contracts. For future projects, contractors will be forced to re-price, add fluctuation clauses and introduce risk[1]sharing arrangement to deal with the uncertainty over potential cost inflation.”

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FIS issued a reminder this week that new product marking requirements are still set to be introduced from 1st January 2023.  From this date it will no longer be legal, except in Northern Ireland, to place CE marked products onto the UK market.  Products previously covered by a Harmonized Standard (e.g. ceiling systems) will be required to be UKCA marked if they are placed on the market from 1 January 2023. 

Beyond this period UK compliant Declarations of Performance will be required to refer to Designated Standards and may need to be retested by a UK Approved Body. 

Distributors and manufacturers of products and contractors purchasing products are reminded to check that their supply chain have this in hand as soon as possible to ensure that there are no interruptions to supply in the New Year.  Remember that that this may impact components that are bought seperately and integrated within your products such as glass, electric motors or hardware.

FIS is aware that there are major bottlenecks at UK test houses and there are concerns that essential testing may not be completed before the deadline.  

If for any reason you or your suppliers experience problems, please let us know as soon as possible.  FIS is feeding concerns into Government directly and via the CPA and continuing to press for an extension to this deadline, so that we can let Government know that this may result in delays to projects.

More information on the UKCA Marking is available here. 

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