The Autumn Forecasts from the Construction Products Association have been published, sharing that macroeconomic headwinds remain challenging for many construction sectors, and overall output is forecast to fall by 4.0% in 2026 and by 0.4% in 2027 as the lagged impacts of the Middle East conflict erode confidence among homebuyers, homeowners, and private-sector clients, particularly amid rising construction and financing costs.
As in previous forecasts, strong niches of activity remain in energy distribution, data centres, water infrastructure and commercial refurbishment and fit-out. Furthermore, positive risks to the forecast remain, given that UK economic growth has surprised on the upside so far this year and inflation has not risen as much as expected, yet. However, downside risks continue to outweigh these, particularly given the re-emergence of Middle East conflict in September and rising oil and energy prices, which are likely to keep inflation higher for longer in both the economy and in construction. In addition, the 2027 forecast assumes no unpredictable major global disruption, but as previous forecasts have highlighted, six unpredictable major disruptions have occurred since 2020 and, as a result, disruptions appear to be the ‘new normal’, and caution is advised going forward.
FIS members can access the report here, as part of your FIS membership.
