According to the latest CPA Construction Industry Forecasts, construction output is expected to fall by 6.8% in 2023, similar to the 7.0% contraction forecast three months ago, before a further marginal fall of 0.3% in 2024, a revision down from the 0.7% growth forecast in the Summer. Both private housing and private housing rm&i are forecast to be the worst affected by the prevailing economic conditions of flatlining growth, stubborn inflation and interest rates remaining at peak throughout 2024. Infrastructure activity remains strong down on the ground due to work continuing on major projects but there are signs that more roads projects are being pushed back or cancelled than anticipated previously, limiting the sector’s growth over the next 12 months.
“With only a couple of months left in a difficult year for construction and looking forward to 2024, the evidence suggests it will still be a while before the clouds begin to lift. Both new build housing and rm&i have taken a significant hit from rising interest rates, falling real wages and weak economic growth and demand is expected to remain subdued for house purchases and improvements.”
CPA Head of Construction Research, Rebecca Larkin
FIS members can download their copy of the Forecast here.
Market Data
FIS has access to a wide range of market data from sources including the CPA and Barbour ABI. In addition, FIS produces a state of trade survey specifically for the finishes and interiors sector.